previously suggested about bharti airtel that it may test 324 abv 292...abv 292 it tested 316 yesterday

the above given chart is about nifty level and advance/decline ratio....there is a negative divergence on the adv/decline front.......while nifty is moving high the adv/decline ratio is making a lower high....though it is not a time to take a long position blindly or go short immediately but short sellers may enter the market soon

picks for long term

one of my personal picks as an investor for 6-8 months view is KALINDEE RAIL NIRMAN ENGINEERS...stock offers great returns during the railway budget
the stock made a recent high of 240 during budget and now currnetly @138.....investors cn acuumulate this stock arnd 115-140 level n expect good returns by rail budget in feb ..target cud be as high as 210


disclaimer--investment r subject to market risk....this is my view...its always good you do some research on investing

how a sugar investor can play the sugar cycle!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sugar being a commodity, the sugar industry is cyclical in nature. It is a typical cycle which is affected by cane supply and sugar demand. In this article, we take a look at how to identify a good sugar stock. Currently, with the sector looking bitter, it is even more important to identify the right stocks to sweeten the gains

Sugar is a cyclical and a highly regulated industry. Trade barriers, including production quotas, guaranteed prices and import tariffs, impart a significant degree of distortion to international prices. The relatively longer plantation cycle, coupled with restrictive trade practices, has imparted a fair degree of volatility to sugar prices. In India, sugar production follows a three-five year cycle. Higher production leads to increased availability of sugar thereby declining the sugar prices. This leads to lower profitability for the companies and delayed payment to the farmers. As a result of higher sugarcane arrears, the farmers switch to other crops thereby leading to a fall in the area under cultivation for sugar. This then leads to lower production and lower sugar availability, followed by higher sugar prices, higher profitability and lower arrears and thus the cycle continues.

The production of sugar is seasonal. Sugarcane is crushed from November to April. The critical growth driver for the industry is consumption based on the population growth rate. The supply of sugar is dependent on a number of factors including sugarcane production (area under cultivation, yield), sugarcane utilisation for sugar production, duration of the sugar season, sugar recovery rates and cane pricing

Due to this cyclical nature, sugar manufacturers are vulnerable to industry oscillations. However, sugar by-products like molasses (ethanol, ENA and rectified spirit) and bagasse aid the sugar producers in diversifying risks and lending stability to their revenues.

It is also important to look at the P/E (price to earnings multiple) which the company is trading at vis-à-vis its peers. Companies with an integrated model, larger capacities, better relations with farmers, contracts with power and oil companies will most likely be trading at a premium to peers based on these parameters. If so, then one has to gauge whether that premium is justified. Stocks trading at an unrealistic premium will not be a good option to invest in. After all, valuations have to justify the company’s growth prospects.
Above all this, look at the past record of the management, its vision and its integrity. The management is responsible for the survival of the company and enhancement of the shareholders’ return. If the management has a track record of being on the sly or slow to react to market conditions, then even if the company is the largest or the most efficient, it may not give you your rightful share of the company’s growth and profits

BEST SUGAR STOCKS

1.SHREE RENUKA (stock made a high of 123.5 in early 2010 and made a recent low of 51.5 ...currently trading @71.5)
2.BAJAJ HINDUSTAN(made a high of 247 in early 2010 and a recent low of 100 rupees currently trading @120)
3.BALRAMPUR CHINNI(made a high of 168 in early 2010 and a recent low of 70 rupees currently trading @84)

stocks were hammered so badly as a result of the news that production would surpass demand in india(cycle reversed) and also the world sugar index fell from 30.4 levels to 14 ....so investors should be vigilant about seasonal stocks and buy them @ the right time and wait for the cycle to turn (in the short term investors can wait for further dips to enter into sugar stocks)

reason y bharti had a blasting move

inspite of rcom moving 50% up after their stake sale news the stock that had underperformed rather consolidated was bharti airtel...the pattern is on a 60 minutes time frame...bharti airtel has formed a cup and saucer pattern suggesting abv 292 the target cud be as high as 324.....trader profit booking cant b ruled out arnd 305-325 levels....

NIFTY VIEW

nifty cmp 5352.45...d nifty has cleary formed a head and shoulder pattern on the daily chart indicating huge resistance at the neckline 5340-5350...the nifty has closed exactly @5350....as 5400 was the last swing high nifty is likely to face huge resistance in the range of 5340-5400 ..so investors should carefully watch out this level(5340-5400) for further up/dwn moves...nifty 5500 call has added the max open interst meaning huge resistance @5500 once 5400 is crossed and 5200 put has added the max open interest suggesting gud support @5200..on the downside nifty has good support @5256,5221,5195,5158 and below that 5080,4980....global markets like the US,EUROPE and domestic factors like rate hikes and the much awaited quarterly results r expected to be the next big trigger for the india markets

NIFTY VIEW

nifty cmp 5352.45...d nifty has cleary formed a head and shoulder pattern on the daily chart indicating huge resistance at the neckline 5340-5350...the nifty has closed exactly @5350....as 5400 was the last swing high nifty is likely to face huge resistance in the range of 5340-5400 ..so investors should carefully watch out this level(5340-5400) for further up/dwn moves...nifty 5500 call has added the max open interst meaning huge resistance @5500 once 5400 is crossed and 5200 put has added the max open interest suggesting gud support @5200..on the downside nifty has good support @5256,5221,5195,5158 and below that 5080,4980....global markets like the US,EUROPE and domestic factors like rate hikes and the much awaited quarterly results r expected to be the next big trigger for the india markets

Introduction

Hello one and all.This is srikanth rayipati a.k.a SPECULATOR (stock market trader wid over 2 years of experience in cash and derivatives segment ...also a keen follower of techncial analysis of stocks)....this blog is dedicated to all my clients including people who r fully devoted to the stock market ....hope this blog makes it simple for all to analyse stocks based on some of my observations and analysis ...hope this effort will make us better and profitable traders/investors............feel free to comment and queries on stock or market related issues r always welcome

DISCLAIMER-The above mentioned views are purely mine based on my analysis of technical indicators and fundamentals...it is advisable one does own research before investing/trading